Is the Western Himalayan region vulnerable with respect to downscaled precipitation?

Statistical downscaling is the technique of linking large-scale predictors and local-scale predictands through a relationship that assumed to be helpful generate climate change information from global model (GCM) driven future projection. The present study investigates downscaled seasonal annual rainfall scenarios over different locations Western Himalaya Region (WHR) India using common ten GCMs CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) reanalysis datasets NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center Atmospheric Research); IMD (India Meteorological Department) rain gauge stations. combined EOF (Empirical Orthogonal Function) approach was used develop location-specific statistical models WHR, later on, some skill scores based on error agreement analysis were validate performance. Downscaled precipitation scenario multi-model ensemble GCM under RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5) reveals wetter during 2020s, 2050s, 2080s in monsoon time scale, whereas drier expected winter. Results show possible intensification southwest decrease frequency western disturbances twenty-first century as percentage changes will higher than winter scale. uncertainty monthly projected increase progresses 2020s 2080s. Higher late pre-monsoon early post-monsoon WHR.